For daily data, the recession begins on the first day of the first month following the peak and ends on the last day of the month of the trough. The trough method is used when displaying data on FRED graphs. The third interpretation, known as the peak method, is to show a recession from the period of the peak to the trough (i.e.
For this time series, the recession begins the first day of the period following a peak and ends on the last day of the period of the trough.
For more options on recession shading, see the notes and links below.
This time series is an interpretation of Organisation of Economic Development (OECD) Composite Leading Indicators: Reference Turning Points and Component Series data, which can be found at
The OECD identifies months of turning points without designating a date within the month that turning points occurred.
The dummy variable adopts an arbitrary convention that the turning point occurred at a specific date within the month.
The arbitrary convention does not reflect any judgment on this issue by the OECD.
The recession shading data that we provide initially comes from the source as a list of dates that are either an economic peak or trough.
We interpret dates into recession shading data using one of three arbitrary methods.
This series is used because of its cyclical sensitivity and monthly availability, while the broad based Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is used to supplement the IIP series for identification of the final reference turning points in the growth cycle.